Being in the middle of an interesting political season provided a relevant backdrop to John Allen Paulos' contention that numbers can mean different things to different folks. We are familiar with the exit polls that were way out of whack in predicting the winner in the early days of this presidential race. Why was that? Because pollsters were counting the people who answered their questions, but were missing the "who." The "who" ended up being the significant part of the equation, and without that their predictions were wrong.
The pollsters used numbers that they then turned into predictions, but they didn't have context. Numbers by themselves are not always reliable. And the human mind has trouble wrapping around what's significant.
Let's say someone asked you if you wanted to live one million seconds, one billion seconds, or one trillion seconds. How long would you choose to live? A kid might say one billion because it sounds cool, but no adult would want to last that long. That would keep you here for 32,000 years. So not only do you have to know a number, but you need to have number sense.
As a former reporter, the session title lured me in—"A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper." It also hit home because unfortunately, too many reporters just don't understand the math. Emotions can also get in the way. We all see this on the talking-head show where dueling numbers are thrown around like pitchers warming up before a game. Without context, numbers have no value.
The example Paulos gave that I liked the most had to do with a teacher who gave a daily quiz. He told his students that they could get 10 extra points if they checked the box at the end of the test. Then he added, if more than half of you check the box, I'll deduct 10 points from your score. So not only did the students start doing the math, but emotions were added into the mix. As the semester progressed the number of students who checked the box hovered around 40 percent. But here's the interesting part—it wasn't the same students.
We may think that we control numbers; but often, without our conscious knowledge, numbers can manipulate us.
Posted by Gay Dillin, 4.11.08